COVID-19 cases are surging in Colorado. Now what?

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For much of the pandemic, Colorado has been able to avoid the national spotlight. Hospitalizations stayed low relative to other states, and the COVID-19 test positivity remained under the recommended 5% set by the World Health Organization.

However, cases have recently increased at an alarming rate, as has the positivity rate. Some of the rise in cases can be attributed to testing backlog: An additional 1,540 positive cases gathered by the Kaiser Permanente system between October 1 and October 22 were added all at once to the state's online case count on October 24. But even accounting for that data entry delay, there is no denying the COVID-19 outlook in Colorado is worsening as we approach the holiday season.

As of October 26, the seven-day moving average of new cases is 1,377. The statewide positivity rate over the last week is 6.67%.

According to data analysis from NBC News, Colorado has experienced the fourth highest percentage increase in coronavirus cases over the last two weeks.

The number of cases has been surging across the country. As NPR reports, “all but six states and the District of Columbia show increased cases this week compared to last week.” A sharp jump in COVID-19 cases in the Midwest and Great Plains are driving this “third wave.”

In Boulder, public health officials say a move to Safer Level 3 may be necessary. "It’s no surprise that more Boulder County residents are testing positive for COVID-19 since we’re seeing statewide and national surges,” Boulder County Public Health executive director Jeff Zayach said in a news release. “Unfortunately, this is pushing us toward the possibility of needing to restrict how many people can be in shared areas.”

The dial will be a key tool in determining new restrictions on a county-by-county basis. If cases continue at their current rate, it is likely more counties will fall into the Safer Level 3 level, which would lead to more limitations on schools, businesses, and personal gatherings. For example, under Safer Level 2, gyms can operate at 25% capacity, or up to 50 people. Under Level 3, however, gyms would have to do virtual classes or outdoor classes with no more than 10 people.

All of the capacity restrictions at each level of the dial dashboard are available here.

To learn more about COVID-19 in Colorado, visit covid19.colorado.gov.

However, there have still been some statewide mandates. The mandatory mask order was extended until at least mid-November, and on October 23 the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) announced personal gatherings anywhere in the state are limited to 10 people for at least 30 days. In Denver, the gatherings are limited to five people.

Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas Counties, meanwhile, announced face masks will be required in indoor public spaces and in outdoor spaces “whenever 6-foot distancing is not maintained” until the end of the pandemic.

State officials are hoping a new contact tracing app in Colorado will help get the virus under control. To learn more about the “Exposure Notification” app—which is automatically installed in Apple phones—click here.

Colorado currently operates under a “COVID-19 dial dashboard” system that shows which level of “open” each county in the state is. There are five different levels on the dial (from most open to most restrictive): Protect Our Neighbors, Safer Level 1, Safer Level 2, Safer Level 3, and Stay at Home.

Only Gilpin, Gunnison, Moffat, and Rio Blanco Counties are at the “Protect Our Neighbors” level. Adams and Logan Counties are at Safer Level 3 on the dial, as of October 26. So far, no counties have been labeled “Stay at Home.”

The City and County of Denver tweeted that the rise in cases could lead to another Stay at Home order.

So what do the rising cases and hospitalizations mean for Colorado?

In his weekly COVID-19 press conferences, Governor Jared Polis so far has signaled he favors a county-by-county approach to combating the climbing cases. He praised Boulder County’s ability to get a handle on the outbreaks that occurred when CU Boulder students returned to campus. As Colorado Sun reporter Jesse Aaron Paul noted during Polis’ October 20 press briefing, the governor avoided specifics when asked any possible statewide measures in the future.